Russian wheat harvest expected to be smaller
The country’s shrinking crop is lowering an export estimate to 31.4 million tonnes from 37.6 million tonnes made in April
Many analysts slashed their Russian wheat production and export estimates last week due to a hot and dry finish to the winter wheat growing season. SovEcon, a leading Russian agricultural consultancy, dropped its production estimate to 73.7 million tonnes, down from its April forecast of 83.4 million tonnes. It also reduced its export estimate to 31.4 million tonnes from 37.6 million tonnes. That would be a 13 percent decline from 2018-19. MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett said that is a reasonable estimate given what he anticipates will be a low carryout resulting from an aggressive 2018-19 export campaign. Russia will still be active in markets like North Africa and the Middle East but it won’t be a player in markets where it has a freight disadvantage such as Indonesia and Mexico. “Places like that, I think you’ll probably see limited Russian presence this year because of the lower export numbers,” he said. “So I think that’s positive for the international wheat market.” SovEcon believes the reduced supply of exportable wheat will result in a 20 percent increase in Black Sea wheat prices in the next four to six months.
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